Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The Incheon mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Incheon, South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Incheon. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Yoo Jeong-bok | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Bae June-young | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Park Chan-dae | 96% YES | 4% NO |
| Chung Il-young | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Kim Kyo-heung | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate B | — | |
| Candidate D | — | |
| Candidate F | — | |
South Korea will hold municipal elections on 3 June 2026, with Incheon's mayoral race among the contests. The incumbent mayor, Park Nam-chun, has served since 2018 and is eligible for re-election under South Korean law, which permits two consecutive four-year terms. Incheon, the country's third-largest city by population, serves as a major port and industrial hub, making the mayoral position politically significant within South Korea's regional governance structure.
The 3% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty about the eventual winner, typical for elections held two years hence where candidate fields remain largely unformed. South Korean mayoral elections have historically produced competitive races; the 2018 Incheon election saw Park Nam-chun win with approximately 48% of the vote in a fragmented field. The low probability assigned here likely reflects the market's difficulty in pricing a specific unnamed candidate against the sitting incumbent and potential challengers whose identities remain unclear at this distance from the election date.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements from both the ruling and opposition parties, expected to crystallise in late 2025 or early 2026. South Korea's political landscape has shifted considerably since 2022, with the conservative People Power Party currently holding the presidency; this may influence candidate recruitment and party support patterns. Regional economic conditions in Incheon—particularly port operations, manufacturing employment, and infrastructure projects—will shape campaign messaging. The settlement window closes 3 June 2026 at midnight UTC, with a fallback to "Other" if results remain unconfirmed by year-end.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Incheon Mayoral Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2.5M in lifetime turnover and $113K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for world contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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