Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1700.00–1799.99 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| 1900.00–1999.99 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| <1600.00 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| 1600.00–1699.99 | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| 1800.00–1899.99 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 2000.00+ | 7% YES | 93% NO |
Argentina's Central Bank will publish its official wholesale dollar exchange rate on the final business day of December 2026. The market is pricing the probability that this rate will exceed certain higher brackets—currently reflecting an 11% crowd probability on Polymarket's order book. The BCRA's Tipo de Cambio Mayorista serves as the reference rate for Argentina's foreign exchange system and is closely watched by investors, businesses, and policymakers navigating the country's persistent currency instability.
Argentina's exchange rate dynamics have been volatile across multiple regimes. The official rate has diverged significantly from parallel market rates during periods of capital controls and inflation. Between 2018 and 2023, the official rate moved from roughly 20 ARS per USD to over 200, reflecting both devaluation pressures and policy shifts under successive administrations. The current administration, which took office in December 2023, has pursued a crawling peg strategy with periodic adjustments. Historical precedent suggests that by end-2026, further depreciation is plausible given Argentina's structural inflation differential versus the United States, though the magnitude depends entirely on policy continuity and external financing conditions.
Key variables for traders include the Central Bank's reserve position, inflation trends relative to the dollar, and any shifts in monetary or fiscal policy ahead of 2025 midterm elections. Recent IMF programme negotiations and refinancing schedules will influence the authorities' willingness to allow faster depreciation. The 11% probability currently embedded in the order book reflects scepticism that depreciation will reach the higher brackets specified, suggesting the market expects either policy intervention to stabilise the rate or a more gradual adjustment path through end-2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$18K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for world contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: