Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1.20-1.30 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| 1.60-1.70 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| <0.90 | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| 0.90-1.00 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 1.10-1.20 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| 1.70-1.80 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| >1.80 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 1.00-1.10 | 24% YES | 76% NO |
This market resolves based on XRP/USDT's closing price on the 1-minute candle at noon ET on 6 June 2026, sourced directly from Binance. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 52% implied probability for the YES outcome, indicating roughly even odds amongst traders on where Ripple's token will settle at that specific moment. The resolution mechanism uses Binance's official candle data, with ties resolved to the higher bracket, meaning traders must account for precise price levels rather than directional movement alone.
XRP has historically exhibited volatility around regulatory announcements and macroeconomic shifts affecting cryptocurrency markets broadly. The token's price action typically responds to developments in Ripple's ongoing legal matters, particularly the SEC case which concluded in July 2023 with a partial victory. Since then, XRP has traded within wider ranges than pre-litigation periods, with quarterly volatility often exceeding 30%. Comparable weekly price-fixing markets on XRP have shown that noon ET snapshots can diverge meaningfully from daily closes, particularly during Asian trading hours overlap, making intraday timing material to resolution outcomes.
Traders should monitor Ripple's partnership announcements, any fresh regulatory commentary from US authorities, and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment in the week preceding settlement. Bitcoin's performance typically anchors altcoin price action, and any major macroeconomic data releases on 6 June could drive intraday volatility. The specific noon ET window means traders must account for Asian market momentum carrying into European and early US sessions, where liquidity on Binance's XRP/USDT pair remains consistently deep.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XRP price on June 6?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11K in lifetime turnover and $30K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for weekly contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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