Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Will it rain in Central park on Friday May 29th 2026?
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the NO side at 23%, making this a directional market, backed by $64 of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will it rain in Central park on Friday May 29th 2026? | 23% YES | 77% NO |
The question centres on whether precipitation will fall on Central Park during Friday, 29 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 23% probability, reflecting a roughly one-in-four chance that measurable rain occurs within the park's boundaries on that specific date.
Late May in New York typically sits at the transition between spring and early summer, with historical precipitation patterns showing roughly a 30–35% chance of rain on any given day during this period. Central Park's weather records from the past two decades indicate that late-May Fridays experience rain approximately 28–32% of the time, suggesting the current 23% implied probability sits slightly below the seasonal baseline. This discount may reflect either a drier-than-average forecast window emerging in the medium-term models, or simply the natural variance in how traders weight historical frequencies against forward-looking data.
Traders monitoring this market should track the National Weather Service's extended forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly the 8–14 day outlook issued in early May, which will provide the first reliable signals about atmospheric patterns for that specific week. Seasonal climate indices—including soil moisture anomalies and Atlantic sea-surface temperatures—published by NOAA through spring 2026 will shape expectations around whether the Northeast experiences a wetter or drier-than-normal late May. Real-time updates to the GFS and European weather models in the final week before 29 May will likely drive material repricing of the order book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=knyc. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
Most PolyGram markets clear winning USDC to traders within a few hours of the resolution date, gated only by the UMA optimistic oracle's two-hour dispute window.
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=knyc), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Will it rain in Central park on Friday May 29th 2026?", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. At the current YES price of 23%, a $50 stake on YES buys roughly 217 shares; if YES resolves true those shares pay out at $1.00 each (a $217 gross payout, or +$167 profit). If NO resolves, the shares are worth $0. Slippage tolerance and resting-order depth determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Will it rain in Central park on Friday May 29th 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$14 in lifetime turnover and $64 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $14 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 23%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=knyc. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Will it rain in Central park on Friday May 29th 2026?", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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