Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 5°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 6°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 7°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 8°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 9°C | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 10°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 11°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 12°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on the lowest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 9 May 2026, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical data for that station. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, giving traders a defined endpoint for temperature realisation. The current order book shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, indicating either minimal trading activity or a technical state where no positions have yet formed consensus pricing.
May temperatures in the Paris region typically range between 8–18°C, with historical lows occasionally dipping to 2–5°C during unseasonal cold snaps. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting more granular range definitions on the order book or treating this as a placeholder market pending fuller liquidity. Historical May weather patterns show that whilst frost remains possible in early May across northern France, sustained cold below freezing is relatively uncommon by mid-month, though spring weather volatility means outlier outcomes remain within normal variance.
Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasting updates as May 2026 approaches, particularly any signals from Météo-France or ECMWF models indicating anomalous cold patterns. The Paris-Le Bourget station's specific microclimate—positioned near the city's northern edge—can differ marginally from broader regional readings. Current atmospheric patterns and seasonal oscillation indices will become more predictive roughly 10–14 days before settlement, when medium-range forecasts stabilise.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Lowest temperature in Paris on May 9?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$27K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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