Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 0 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 4 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| >5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 3 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The market tracks the frequency of major seismic events—magnitude 6.5 or above—occurring globally during a seven-day window in late April 2026. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program serves as the authoritative resolution source, capturing significant earthquakes worldwide regardless of location or impact. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, suggesting traders are pricing in a near-certainty that at least one earthquake of this magnitude will occur during the settlement period.
Historical seismic data indicates that earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher occur with considerable regularity. The USGS records approximately 15 such events annually on average, translating to roughly one every 24 days globally. Over any given seven-day window, the baseline probability of observing at least one event of this magnitude typically ranges between 25% and 35%, depending on recent seismic activity patterns and regional stress accumulation. The current 100% pricing appears to reflect either exceptional recent seismic clustering, elevated activity in major fault zones, or market participants pricing in a high confidence threshold rather than strict statistical expectation.
Traders should monitor real-time USGS earthquake bulletins and seismic network alerts from major regional centres, particularly around the Pacific Ring of Fire and subduction zones where large events concentrate. The resolution window extends to 31 May if significant earthquakes have occurred but not yet formally catalogued, creating potential for late settlement adjustments. Recent volcanic and seismic activity in regions like the Philippines, Japan, and South America would warrant close attention as potential catalysts for magnitude 6.5+ events during this period.
The 1997 Manyi earthquake occurred on November 8 at 10:02 UTC. The epicenter was in Nagqu Prefecture in northern Tibet, China. The focal mechanism indicates a left-lateral strike-slip movement. This earthquake had a surface rupture of 17 km (11 mi) long with up to 7 m (23 ft) of left-lateral slip along the Manyi fault, a westward continuation of the Kunlun f
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$35K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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