Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 25°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 26°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 27°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 28°C | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 29°C | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| 30°C | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| 31°C | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| 32°C | 9% YES | 91% NO |
On 12 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges in Celsius. The market settles based on historical weather data from Wunderground, capturing the daily maximum temperature for that specific location and date. Currently, the order book shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, indicating either minimal trading activity or a technical state where no position has yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful price.
Wuhan's May climate sits at the threshold between spring and early summer, with historical highs typically ranging between 28°C and 35°C during this period. Reviewing past May temperatures at the airport station provides the baseline for assessing which ranges carry genuine probability mass. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders have not yet committed capital to any outcome, making this an early-stage market where initial positions will substantially shape perceived likelihood. Seasonal patterns and long-term climate data from the China Meteorological Administration offer reference points for evaluating realistic temperature distributions.
The primary catalyst remains the actual weather system affecting central China in May 2026. Traders monitoring spring weather forecasts from late April onwards will gain directional signals; anomalous heat waves or cooler-than-average patterns would shift probability towards extreme ranges. No scheduled announcements or policy changes directly influence this outcome—resolution depends entirely on meteorological conditions and accurate data reporting from Wunderground's historical records on the settlement date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 12?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$20K in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $17K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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