Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckley Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 43°F or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 44-45°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 46-47°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 48-49°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 50-51°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 52-53°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 54-55°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 56-57°F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On 7 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Buckley Space Force Base Station in Aurora, Colorado will determine which temperature range this market resolves to. The settlement uses historical data from Weather Underground, with resolution finalised once the day's readings are complete. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability, indicating traders are not currently pricing any meaningful likelihood into specific temperature outcomes at this early stage.
Denver's May climate typically ranges from highs in the mid-60s to low-70s Fahrenheit, though the region experiences considerable variability. Historical May records at nearby stations show extremes from freezing temperatures in early May to peaks exceeding 85°F in warmer years. The 0% probability reflects the substantial uncertainty inherent in weather prediction more than a year in advance, where seasonal forecasting models have limited skill. Comparable spring weather markets often see probability distributions emerge only as the event window approaches within weeks rather than months.
Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal climate patterns as May 2026 approaches, particularly any signals from spring weather outlooks issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the months prior. Local topography and elevation at Buckley (approximately 5,430 feet) create distinct microclimatic conditions relative to downtown Denver. As the settlement date nears, standard weather forecasts will become actionable; currently, the market reflects the reality that meaningful price discovery cannot occur until meteorological models gain predictive power in the final fortnight before the event.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Denver on May 7?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$31K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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