Trade: Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 10?

Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 10 May 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, with historical temperature data from Weather Underground serving as the official reference. Traders are currently pricing a 0% probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which range will occur or minimal trading activity establishing initial liquidity on Polymarket's order book.

Chengdu's May climate typically sees maximum temperatures between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during warm years. Historical May data from the airport station shows considerable year-to-year variation; the city experiences its transition into early summer during this period, with increasing solar radiation and humidity. The 0% crowd probability reflects the current state of the order book rather than a genuine forecast that no temperature will be recorded—this is standard for newly listed weather markets awaiting initial price discovery.

Key variables affecting the outcome include regional weather patterns in late April and early May 2026, particularly the strength of any pre-monsoon systems moving into Sichuan Province. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from China's meteorological authorities and broader atmospheric circulation patterns in the weeks preceding the settlement date. Local air quality and urban heat island effects at the airport station can also influence recorded maxima. The specificity of using Shuangliu's official station data means microclimatic conditions at that location matter more than general Chengdu temperatures.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 10?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$73K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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