Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 17°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 18°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 19°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 20°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 21°C | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 22°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 23°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 24°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On 9 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport Station in Busan will fall within one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific date, with the market resolving once the final reading is confirmed. Currently, the order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability across all temperature brackets, suggesting either minimal liquidity or a technical artefact in how positions are distributed.
Busan's May climate typically sees daily highs between 20–25°C, though the city occasionally experiences unseasonable warmth. Historical May records show temperatures have reached into the upper 20s Celsius during warm years, with 2020 and 2023 recording notably elevated spring temperatures across South Korea. The current zero probability reading appears disconnected from seasonal norms and should be interpreted as a liquidity or pricing inefficiency rather than a genuine forecast signal.
Traders should monitor Korean Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early May 2026, which will provide the most reliable guidance on whether high-pressure systems or warm air masses are expected over the peninsula. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months could influence spring temperature patterns. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 9 May, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions once preliminary weather data becomes available through the morning of that date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Busan on May 9?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$44K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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