Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 14°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 15°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 16°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 17°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 18°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 19°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 20°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 21°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On 4 May 2026, Gimhae International Airport Station in Busan will record a daily maximum temperature. The market settles based on Wunderground's historical data for that specific date, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on the settlement day. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a particular temperature range or minimal liquidity across all outcome brackets at present.
Busan's May temperatures typically range between 18–25°C, with historical data from recent years showing daily highs clustering around 20–23°C during early May. The 0% probability reading likely reflects the market's current state rather than a definitive forecast; with settlement over a year away, sparse initial trading often produces skewed prices. Comparable May weather patterns from 2023–2025 provide the most relevant baseline for understanding typical thermal conditions at this coastal monitoring station.
Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of anomalous warming or cooling from meteorological institutes. Spring weather in South Korea can shift significantly based on high-pressure systems moving from the Pacific or cold fronts from the north. Real-time forecast updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration typically become reliable 10–14 days before the settlement date, at which point order book activity may shift substantially from current levels.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Busan on May 4?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$43K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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