Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Polymarket.com has more monthly worldwide web visits as published by similarweb.com (https://similarweb.com/#/digitalsuite/websiteanalysis/overview/website-performance/*/999/1m?webSource=Total&key=polymarket.com%2Crobinhood.com) for at least one Monthly data point in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any monthly data point for 2026 will qualify. If not all relevant monthly data points have been published by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. A tie in the number of Monthly Website visits will not suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Polymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The question hinges on whether Polymarket.com will record higher monthly web traffic than Robinhood.com according to SimilarWeb data at any point during 2026. Polymarket, a decentralised prediction market platform, currently operates at a fraction of Robinhood's traffic scale. Robinhood, the retail brokerage, consistently attracts tens of millions of monthly visitors. For Polymarket to surpass this metric even once would represent a substantial shift in user engagement, likely requiring either explosive growth in prediction market adoption or a significant contraction in Robinhood's traffic.
Historical precedent suggests such reversals are uncommon amongst established financial platforms. Robinhood has maintained dominant traffic rankings since its 2013 launch, weathering regulatory scrutiny and market volatility. Polymarket has grown substantially since its 2020 inception, particularly during high-stakes political and sporting events, yet remains a niche product compared to mainstream brokerages. The current 100% implied probability on the order book reflects either extreme confidence in Polymarket's growth trajectory or potential mispricing given the structural advantages Robinhood maintains through brand recognition and regulatory compliance.
Key catalysts include regulatory clarity around prediction markets in the United States—the CFTC has signalled openness to broader market expansion—and major events in 2026 that could drive speculative interest. Polymarket's user base has historically spiked during US elections and major geopolitical events. Any announcement of institutional backing or mainstream media coverage could accelerate adoption. Conversely, regulatory headwinds or technical outages could dampen growth. Settlement depends on SimilarWeb publishing complete monthly data through 2026, with resolution based on available figures by 31 January 2027.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Polymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$48K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for views contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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