Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ventual's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ventuals (https://x.com/ventuals) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $1.5B | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| $2B | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| $500M | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| $300M | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| $800M | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| $1B | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| $100M | 28% YES | 72% NO |
Ventuals, a platform focused on venture capital and tokenised investment opportunities, is preparing to launch its native token. The market is pricing the probability that the token's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of becoming publicly tradable and transferable. Current order book activity on Polymarket implies a 28% probability of this outcome, reflecting trader expectations around initial price discovery and market capitalisation at launch.
Token launches typically experience significant volatility in their opening day, with FDV movements driven by initial liquidity provision, allocation distribution amongst early participants, and broader market sentiment towards the project category. Comparable recent launches in the venture-backed token space have shown wide variance in day-one valuations, depending on pre-launch hype, lock-up structures, and whether early investors face immediate selling pressure. The 28% implied probability suggests the market views a high FDV threshold as unlikely but plausible, pricing in scenarios where strong demand from institutional or retail participants could drive valuations upwards rapidly.
Key variables affecting settlement include the exact launch date and time, the initial token supply and pricing mechanism, and liquidity conditions on major exchanges within the 24-hour window. Traders should monitor Ventuals' official communications for launch announcements, details on token distribution, and any lock-up or vesting schedules that might influence early trading dynamics. The resolution hinges on identifying the most liquid price source available at the specified settlement time, which will determine the precise FDV calculation used for resolving the market.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ventuals FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$29K in lifetime turnover and $27K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for ventuals contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $8 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: