Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1.7m | 4% YES | 97% NO |
| 2m | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| 1m | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| 1.2m | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| 1.5m | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| 1.1m | 87% YES | 13% NO |
| 1.3m | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| 1.4m | 11% YES | 90% NO |
Venezuelan crude oil production faces structural constraints that have persisted for over a decade. The country's output collapsed from roughly 3 million barrels per day in 2011 to approximately 400,000–600,000 bpd by 2024, driven by underinvestment, sanctions, equipment deterioration, and brain drain across the sector. Recovery to meaningful production levels would require sustained capital investment, technological expertise, and geopolitical shifts that remain uncertain. The current Polymarket order book reflects a 4% implied probability, pricing in the difficulty of reversing this trajectory within a two-year window.
Historical precedent suggests Venezuelan production rebounds occur incrementally and sporadically. Previous attempts at stabilisation have stalled when external funding dried up or political circumstances shifted. The Orinoco Belt, which holds vast reserves, demands heavy infrastructure investment and specialised knowledge to extract. Any meaningful recovery would likely depend on either sanctions relief enabling foreign investment, or a substantial shift in domestic governance and capital allocation—neither of which markets currently price as probable for 2026.
Traders monitoring this market should track developments around US sanctions policy, particularly any announcements regarding Venezuelan oil exports or foreign investment restrictions. OPEC's monthly reports, the settlement source, typically lag production by one month. Secondary source data can vary, making the specific threshold critical; even modest production increases might resolve positively if the threshold is set conservatively. Recent reporting from Reuters and Bloomberg on Venezuelan energy sector developments provides current context on infrastructure repairs and potential joint ventures, though tangible production gains remain elusive.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$97K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for venezuela contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $274 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 February 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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