Trade: Maduro out by...?

Market context

The question at hand is whether Nicolás Maduro will be removed from Venezuela's presidency at any point during 2025. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects current market positioning, where traders are pricing near-zero odds of his departure within the calendar year. This valuation emerges from the depth of bids and offers available; the lack of meaningful buy-side interest at even fractional probabilities suggests consensus that Maduro's grip on power remains secure through year-end.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance for rapid presidential transitions in Venezuela. Hugo Chávez survived a 2002 coup attempt and remained in power until his death in 2013; Maduro has consolidated control since 2013 despite economic collapse, mass emigration, and international sanctions. The 2023 presidential election, disputed by opposition groups, saw Maduro claim victory and assume a new term in January 2024. No sitting Venezuelan president has been removed through domestic pressure alone in the modern era, establishing a high bar for market participants to price in removal scenarios.

Near-term catalysts centre on the opposition's capacity to mobilise sustained pressure and international intervention. The opposition coalition remains fragmented following the 2023 election dispute, with key figures either imprisoned, exiled, or sidelined. Traders should monitor statements from the Trump administration regarding Venezuela policy, given the incoming US presidency's historical hawkishness on Maduro. Any major economic shock, military defection, or coordinated international action could shift probabilities, but current market pricing reflects scepticism that such events will materialise within twelve months.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Maduro out by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$56.6M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for venezuela contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for 17 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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