Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream SOL/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market captures a fifteen-minute window for Solana's price movement on 31 May 2026, settling against Chainlink's SOL/USD data stream. The resolution hinges on whether the closing price at 11:45AM ET exceeds or matches the opening price at 11:30AM ET. The 0% implied probability on the order book reflects extreme confidence in a downward or flat outcome during this specific interval, though such compressed timeframes introduce substantial noise from microstructure effects and order flow rather than fundamental shifts.
Fifteen-minute price windows in cryptocurrency markets historically exhibit minimal directional bias; intraday volatility clustering and bid-ask bounce dynamics typically dominate over genuine directional conviction. Solana's volatility profile has ranged between 60–120% annualised in recent years depending on market regime, meaning even modest absolute price swings are commonplace within single-minute intervals. The current 0% probability suggests traders are pricing in either technical resistance at the specified time or a broader bearish sentiment on the day, though such extreme crowding in prediction markets often reflects thin liquidity rather than genuine certainty.
Traders should monitor Solana's pre-market momentum and any scheduled announcements affecting the broader cryptocurrency complex on 31 May. Macro catalysts—Federal Reserve communications, equity futures performance, or Bitcoin volatility—typically drive correlated moves across altcoins during regular trading hours. The Chainlink data stream itself introduces a dependency on oracle pricing; any divergence between major spot exchanges and Chainlink's aggregated feed could affect settlement interpretation, though such discrepancies are rare for major trading pairs.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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