Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles based on whether the Hyperliquid (HYPE) token price on Chainlink's HYPE/USD feed closes higher or equal to its opening level during a five-minute window on 10 May at 3:00–3:05 PM ET. The 0% implied probability reflects the current order book positioning on Polymarket, where no traders are currently backing an upward movement during this specific interval. Such extreme probabilities in micro-timeframe markets typically indicate either thin liquidity or consensus that downward pressure dominates the settlement window.
Five-minute price movements in crypto assets are notoriously difficult to predict, with historical precedent suggesting that intraday volatility often exceeds directional bias. HYPE, launched in 2024 as a decentralised exchange token, has experienced the typical volatility profile of emerging layer-one infrastructure tokens, where single-minute candles frequently reverse without clear catalysts. The current 0% probability may reflect either genuine bearish sentiment ahead of the window or simply an absence of contrarian liquidity willing to price in upside scenarios.
Traders should monitor whether any scheduled announcements or exchange listings occur near the settlement time, though Hyperliquid's core protocol operates continuously without event-driven catalysts. Chainlink's HYPE/USD feed aggregates price data across multiple venues, so liquidity conditions and order flow across major exchanges during that specific five-minute period will determine settlement. The extreme probability skew suggests limited participation in this particular micro-window contract, creating potential mispricing if volatility patterns deviate from current expectations.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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