Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Hyperliquid's price movement will be assessed over a five-minute window on 4 May between 12:00 and 12:05 PM Eastern Time, with settlement determined by Chainlink's HYPE/USD data feed rather than spot exchange prices. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for an upward or flat price movement, suggesting traders are pricing in negligible downside risk for this specific interval. This extreme confidence warrants scrutiny given that five-minute windows introduce considerable noise and volatility, particularly in cryptocurrency markets where intraday swings are routine.
Historical precedent for such tight time windows shows that micro-timeframe price predictions often reflect either information asymmetry or overconfidence in directional certainty. Comparable five-minute resolution markets on crypto assets typically see implied probabilities cluster between 45–55% unless there is scheduled news or known liquidity events. The 100% reading here suggests either that traders expect a specific catalyst during this window, or that the market has attracted limited participation and depth, making the probability less reliable as a consensus estimate.
Traders should monitor announcements from Hyperliquid's development team, exchange listings, or protocol updates scheduled for early May. Additionally, broader cryptocurrency market movements and Bitcoin's price action during this window will likely influence HYPE's trajectory. Chainlink's data feed itself can occasionally lag or experience brief delays, which could affect settlement interpretation. The absence of scheduled events publicly announced for this specific five-minute interval makes the extreme probability reading particularly noteworthy and suggests caution regarding its stability as more traders engage with the order book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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