Trade: Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET

0% YES 100% NO

Opened 30 May 2026 · Settles 31 May 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: $0
Total Volume: —
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $5

Trade this market on PolyGram →

Market outcomes

Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET

0% YES

100% NO

Market context

This market captures a five-minute window for Ethereum's price movement on 31 May 2026, settling against the Chainlink ETH/USD data stream rather than spot exchange prices. The resolution hinges on whether the closing price at 7:20PM ET exceeds or matches the opening price at 7:15PM ET—a narrow timeframe that isolates intraday volatility from broader directional trends.

The current 0% implied probability on the order book reflects extreme pessimism about upward movement in this specific five-minute interval. Comparable ultra-short-window markets typically show wide probability distributions because price action over such brief periods approaches random walk behaviour; the fact that traders have priced this to zero suggests either technical factors driving expected downward pressure or simply sparse liquidity in this particular contract, with early positions anchoring the book heavily toward "Down".

Traders monitoring this market should note that Ethereum's price action in late May 2026 will depend on broader macro conditions, regulatory announcements, and on-chain activity patterns. The Chainlink feed itself introduces a dependency on oracle reporting; any divergence between the feed's timestamp and actual market prices could affect settlement. Five-minute windows are sensitive to flash volatility, order book imbalances, and the specific liquidity conditions at that exact time on 31 May. Without scheduled catalysts pinned to that precise window, the outcome remains largely contingent on ambient market microstructure.

Wikipedia Context

Ethereum
Ethereum is a decentralized blockchain with smart contract functionality. Ether is the native cryptocurrency of the platform. Among cryptocurrencies, ether is second only to bitcoin in market capitalization. It is open-source software.
Ethereum Classic
Ethereum Classic is a blockchain-based distributed computing platform that offers smart contract (scripting) functionality. Ethereum Classic was created in a hard fork with the mainline Ethereum blockchain, and maintains the original, unaltered ledger prior to the attempt to reverse a hacking attack on the Ethereum-based DAO in July 2016. It is now the large

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 0% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

View live odds & trade →

Related prediction markets

Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: