Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
BNB will trade within a five-minute window on 1 June 2026 between 4:45AM and 4:50AM ET. The market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink BNB/USD data stream shows a price at 4:50AM greater than or equal to the price at 4:45AM. Settlement relies exclusively on Chainlink's oracle feed rather than spot exchange data, which introduces a technical dependency distinct from broader market pricing.
The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting five-minute price movements with certainty, yet the crowd has priced this as near-certain to resolve "Up". Historical precedent suggests that ultra-short timeframe markets often show extreme probabilities because directional conviction over such brief periods is difficult to quantify; however, the absence of significant overnight volatility in crypto markets during off-peak US hours typically favours stability. BNB's 24-hour trading patterns show lower volatility during early morning ET sessions compared to Asian and European market hours.
Traders should monitor whether any scheduled announcements from Binance or broader cryptocurrency market developments occur in the hours preceding the settlement window. Exchange maintenance windows, regulatory statements, or macroeconomic data releases could introduce volatility. The Chainlink feed's update frequency and any potential latency between spot prices and oracle reporting merit consideration, as discrepancies between real-time exchange prices and the data stream's reported values could affect resolution interpretation.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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