Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market tracks whether BNB will trade higher or flat during a five-minute window on 9 May 2026, from 3:40pm to 3:45pm ET, using Chainlink's BNB/USD data feed as the settlement source. The 100% implied probability reflects the order book's current positioning on Polymarket, where traders are pricing near-certainty of an upward or neutral price movement during this specific interval.
Five-minute price movements in major cryptocurrency assets typically exhibit high variance, with historical data showing that intraday micro-windows rarely settle with such extreme confidence unless driven by specific event timing. BNB's volatility profile and the narrow resolution window mean that even modest price pressure could determine the outcome. Comparable ultra-short-duration markets on Polymarket have occasionally seen sharp repricing when market conditions shift, particularly if liquidity thins or unexpected volatility spikes during the settlement period.
Traders should monitor whether significant announcements or scheduled events align with the 3:40pm ET window on that date. BNB's price action typically correlates with broader cryptocurrency market sentiment and Binance-specific developments. The reliance on Chainlink's data feed rather than spot exchange prices introduces a dependency on oracle reporting; any discrepancy between real-time market prices and the feed's reported value could create settlement disputes. Monitoring BNB's intraday technical levels and any scheduled economic data releases in the hours preceding the window will be essential for assessing whether the current probability reflects genuine conviction or order book imbalance.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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