Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 31, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market tracks whether BNB's price will be higher or equal at 8:00AM ET on 31 May 2026 compared to 7:45AM ET that same morning, using Chainlink's BNB/USD data feed as the settlement source. The fifteen-minute window captures intraday volatility in one of the largest cryptocurrency assets by market capitalisation.
The current order book on Polymarket shows 100% implied probability for "Up", reflecting either extreme confidence in upward momentum or minimal liquidity at current pricing. Fifteen-minute price windows historically resolve "Up" roughly 50–52% of the time for major assets, as random walk behaviour dominates such short intervals. When crowd probability reaches extremes like this, it typically signals either thin order books with few counterparties or a genuine conviction trade. The settlement mechanism's reliance on Chainlink's specific data stream—rather than spot exchange prices—introduces a minor basis risk, though Chainlink's BNB/USD feed generally tracks major venues closely.
Traders should monitor BNB's broader market conditions in the days preceding 31 May, including any announcements from Binance, regulatory developments affecting the exchange, or macroeconomic events that move cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin's direction often influences altcoin price action during short windows. The specific 7:45–8:00AM ET slot falls during Asian trading hours' tail end and European morning, when liquidity typically remains moderate. No scheduled economic data or crypto-specific events are currently known for that exact timeframe, meaning resolution will likely depend on ambient market momentum rather than discrete catalysts.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 31, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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