Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Obratne (47.827331° N, 36.548744° E) or Temyrivka (47.825114° N, 36.570672° E), Zaporizhzhya Oblast, between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 31 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
Ukraine's ability to recapture Obratne and Temyrivka in Zaporizhzhya Oblast by May 2026 depends on reversing Russian territorial gains made during 2022–2024 advances in this sector. Both settlements lie in the southern portion of Zaporizhzhya Oblast, roughly 8–10 kilometres behind current front lines as of late 2024. The market's 0% implied probability reflects the substantial military resources required to mount a successful counter-offensive in this theatre, where Russian forces have maintained defensive positions and Ukraine has prioritised operations elsewhere, particularly in Kursk and eastern Donbas.
Historical precedent suggests Ukrainian territorial recapture in Zaporizhzhya remains difficult but not unprecedented. Ukraine recovered portions of Zaporizhzhya Oblast during the 2022 autumn counter-offensive, though momentum stalled thereafter. The current 0% probability on Polymarket's order book indicates traders assess the probability as negligible given Ukraine's stretched manpower, limited offensive capability in this specific sector, and Russian entrenchment. Comparable settlements in contested zones have changed hands multiple times, but sustained recapture typically requires either Russian withdrawal or concentrated Ukrainian offensive operations backed by sufficient reserves.
Traders monitoring this market should track Ukrainian military announcements regarding Zaporizhzhya operations, Russian defensive posture changes, and broader strategic shifts in the conflict. The Institute for the Study of War's mapping updates form the settlement mechanism, making their assessments the definitive reference. Any significant reallocation of Ukrainian forces toward southern offensives, or reports of Russian defensive weakening in this sector, would represent material catalysts for reassessing the current probability.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$21K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for ukraine contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $98 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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