Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| December 31 | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| June 30 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| May 31 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| October 31 | 28% YES | 72% NO |
Russia and Ukraine have been engaged in direct military conflict since the 2022 full-scale invasion, with frontline positions largely static since late 2022 despite ongoing attrition. A ceasefire agreement—defined here as any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement officially announced or confirmed by credible reporting—remains absent. The current 46% implied probability on Polymarket reflects genuine uncertainty about whether such an agreement materialises by end-2026, with the order book pricing in meaningful probability mass on both resolution paths.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance for this conflict's trajectory. The 1994 Ceasefire Agreement in Bosnia held despite deep antagonism, whilst the 2014 Minsk protocols in Ukraine itself collapsed within months. The 2022 Istanbul talks produced no agreement; subsequent negotiations have stalled. The timeframe matters considerably—a ceasefire within 24 months requires either significant military developments that shift incentives, or diplomatic breakthroughs currently absent from public discourse. Neither side has signalled willingness to accept the other's core demands regarding territorial control or NATO membership.
Key catalysts traders should monitor include shifts in US policy following the 2024 election cycle, European military aid commitments, and any major battlefield developments that might alter negotiating positions. Ukrainian and Russian domestic political pressures—particularly if conflict fatigue rises—could create openings. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP News indicates both sides remain entrenched on preconditions, though backchannel discussions occasionally surface. The 2026 settlement window is sufficiently distant that unforeseen geopolitical shifts remain plausible, supporting the current probability's reflection of genuine optionality rather than consensus expectation.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$188K in lifetime turnover and $376K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for ukraine peace deal contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $188K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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