Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any sitting Cabinet Minister of the United Kingdom as of February 4, 2026 ET, resigns from their position in the cabinet by February 28, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Only an actual resignation will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. If the Prime Minister accepts a letter of resignation from a cabinet minister, or a cabinet minister otherwise formally resigns, this market will resolve to "Yes" immediately, even if the cabinet minister in question agrees to stay for a period of time for any reason (e.g., until a replacement is ready, etc.).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| February 28 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 64% YES | 37% NO |
The market concerns whether any member of the current UK Cabinet will formally resign their ministerial position between early February and late February 2026. A resignation occurs when a minister submits a letter of resignation that the Prime Minister accepts, triggering immediate market resolution to Yes regardless of any agreed transition period. The current 0% implied probability reflects Polymarket's order book pricing, indicating traders are assigning negligible likelihood to such an event within this specific four-week window.
Cabinet resignations in the UK typically cluster around moments of acute political pressure: policy disagreements, personal misconduct revelations, or broader governmental crises. The past decade has seen ministers resign over various triggers, from Amber Rudd's departure in 2019 over the Windrush scandal to more recent departures linked to policy disputes. However, resignations are episodic rather than routine, and the probability of one occurring in any given month depends heavily on whether specific triggering events materialise. The absence of imminent scandals or policy flashpoints currently visible in the political calendar supports the low probability assessment.
Traders should monitor parliamentary business schedules, particularly contentious legislation or spending announcements that might provoke backbench or ministerial dissent. Media coverage of Cabinet tensions, particularly around the Budget or major policy announcements, would signal rising resignation risk. Any personal or professional controversies affecting sitting ministers—investigated through parliamentary committees or press reporting—represent the most likely catalysts. The settlement window's brevity means only developments occurring in real time during February will matter; longer-term political instability would fall outside the resolution criteria.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "UK Cabinet Minister resigns by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$111K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for uk contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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