Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 26, 12:00 PM ET and June 2, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 5-9 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 10-14 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 15-19 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 20-24 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 25-29 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 30-34 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 35-39 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, maintains an active presence on X through the official @khamenei_ir account, which functions as a primary channel for state messaging on foreign policy, domestic affairs and religious commentary. The market tracks his posting frequency across an eight-day window in late May and early June 2026, counting main feed posts, quotes and reposts but excluding replies unless they appear on the main feed itself.
Historical posting patterns from Khamenei's account show considerable variability, with activity often correlating to significant geopolitical events, anniversaries of the Islamic Revolution, or responses to international developments. During periods of heightened regional tension or diplomatic activity, posting frequency has typically ranged from zero to several posts daily, whilst quieter periods may see gaps of several days. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book suggests traders are pricing in near-certainty of at least one post during this eight-day window, reflecting the account's consistent baseline activity level rather than any specific anticipated event.
Traders monitoring this market should watch for scheduled Iranian state events, nuclear negotiations updates, or responses to US policy announcements, as these have historically triggered increased communication from official channels. The resolution depends entirely on the Post Counter tracker at xtracker.polymar, which captures posts within approximately five minutes of publication. The settlement window closes 2 June 2026 at 16:00 UTC, giving a defined endpoint for measurement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://x.com/khamenei_ir. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Khamenei # posts May 26 - June 2, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$12K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tweets markets contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/khamenei_ir. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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