Trade: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of May 11 above___?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $5K
- Total Volume
- $743
- 24h Volume
- $733
- Open Interest
- $665
Market outcomes
| $380 | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| $385 | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| $390 | 95% YES | 5% NO |
| $395 | 93% YES | 7% NO |
| $400 | 92% YES | 8% NO |
| $405 | 95% YES | 5% NO |
| $410 | 91% YES | 9% NO |
| $415 | 87% YES | 14% NO |
Market context
Tesla's closing price on Friday, 16 May 2026 will determine this market's resolution. The 90% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects confidence that TSLA will trade above the specified threshold by week's end. This probability is being formed through active trading on the platform, with the current ask-bid spread indicating where marginal traders are positioning ahead of the settlement window closing on 15 May at 20:00 UTC.
Historical volatility in Tesla's weekly price action suggests that 90% probability typically corresponds to relatively modest price targets or near-term support levels. TSLA has demonstrated significant intraweek swings, particularly around earnings announcements or macroeconomic shifts affecting growth-stock valuations. The probability distribution embedded in the order book reflects both technical support levels and the baseline assumption that no extraordinary disruption occurs during the trading week.
Traders should monitor Tesla's earnings calendar, any announcements regarding production figures or capital allocation, and broader equity market conditions affecting technology stocks. Federal Reserve communications and interest rate expectations remain material to growth-stock valuations. Additionally, any trading halts, regulatory announcements, or delisting events would trigger alternative resolution procedures as specified in the market rules. The settlement uses official closing prices published by the exchange, so traders should verify the final session date given potential holiday schedules affecting US markets.
Wikipedia Context
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Tesla TakedownTesla Takedown is a grassroots protest movement that arose in early 2025 targeting Tesla, Inc. and its CEO, Elon Musk. Protesters have organized demonstrations at Tesla stores across the United States, Canada, Europe, and Australasia. The movement urges the public to divest from Tesla by selling their vehicles and shares of Tesla stock, with the goal to econ
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Tesla, Inc.Tesla, Inc. is an American multinational automotive and clean energy company. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, it designs, manufactures, and sells battery electric vehicles (BEVs), stationary battery energy storage devices from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar shingles, and related products and services.
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Elon Musk's Tesla RoadsterElon Musk's Tesla Roadster is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun. A mannequin in a spacesuit, dubbed "Starman", occupies the driver's seat. The car and rocket are products of Tesla and SpaceX, respectively, both companies headed by Elon Musk. The
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Tesla EnergyTesla Energy Operations, Inc. is the sustainable energy division of Tesla, Inc. that develops, manufactures, sells and installs photovoltaic solar energy generation systems, battery energy storage products and other related products and services to residential, commercial and industrial customers.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of May 11 above___?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$743 in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tsla contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $733 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of May 11 above___?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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