Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET. This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024? | 89% YES | 11% NO |
The 2026 US House midterms will determine whether Republicans lose at least one seat in any state Trump won during the 2024 presidential election. Trump carried 31 states in 2024, meaning this market effectively asks whether Republican representation will decline in any of those states compared to current House composition. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 90% probability of at least one Republican seat loss across this broad geographic footprint, suggesting traders view such erosion as highly likely over the next two years.
Historically, the party holding the presidency faces significant headwinds in midterm elections. In 2022, Republicans gained seats despite this pattern, but that occurred under conditions of high inflation and Biden's low approval ratings. The 2026 cycle will operate under different economic and political conditions. Comparable precedent suggests that even modest seat losses for the majority party in midterms are the norm rather than exception—the party in power lost House seats in every midterm from 1934 through 2022 except 2002. Given Republicans currently hold seats in all 31 Trump-won states, the threshold for "Yes" resolution is relatively low: a single net loss anywhere triggers settlement.
Key catalysts include economic data releases through 2026, Trump's approval trajectory, and special elections that might signal shifting voter sentiment. The 2024 election itself demonstrated volatility in traditionally Republican areas, particularly suburbs. Traders should monitor redistricting litigation outcomes and candidate recruitment announcements in competitive districts within Trump states, as these will shape which seats face genuine vulnerability heading into November 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 89%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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