Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying statement includes any remark by Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or endorsement of the listed individual personally or professionally. This can include direct praise (e.g., “He/She is smart,” “He’s/She's a great leader”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“impressive,” “strong,” “brilliant,” “doing a great job”) made in reference to the listed individual.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Zohran Mamdani | 55% YES | 46% NO |
| Kevin Warsh | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Franklin Graham | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| Hillary Clinton | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| Weijia Jiang | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Shehbaz Sharif | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| Dan Caine | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Vladimir Putin | 22% YES | 79% NO |
Donald Trump's public praise of a specific individual between now and 31 May 2026 forms the basis of this market. The resolution criteria capture a broad range of positive statements—from direct commendations to characterisations like "impressive" or "doing a great job"—made in reference to the named person either professionally or personally. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 41% probability of such a statement occurring within the settlement window, reflecting uncertainty about both Trump's public communications and the identity of the individual in question.
Historical patterns suggest Trump's praise statements are frequent and often reactive to political developments, media coverage, or personal interactions. During his presidency and post-presidency, Trump regularly issued public endorsements and compliments across political allies, media figures, and business associates. The baseline frequency of such statements—whether via social media, rallies, interviews, or press appearances—has remained relatively consistent, though the specific targets vary with political circumstances. This historical consistency underpins the mid-range probability currently reflected in the market.
Traders should monitor Trump's public schedule, including planned rallies, media appearances, and social media activity through May 2026. Congressional developments, primary elections, and shifts in Republican Party dynamics may influence whom Trump chooses to praise publicly. Recent reporting on Trump's political positioning and endorsement strategy will provide context for assessing whether the current 41% probability adequately reflects the likelihood of a qualifying statement emerging during the settlement period.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $80 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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