Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Xi Jinping from May 14 to May 15, 2026 (https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/04/china/china-us-talks-iran-intl-hnk). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring Xi Jinping from May 14 through May 15, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Japan / Korea | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| Friend of mine | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| Taiwan / Tibet | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Sleepy Joe | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Kamikaze | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Nuclear | 60% YES | 40% NO |
| Tough Negotiator | 34% YES | 67% NO |
Trump is scheduled to meet Xi Jinping on 14–15 May 2026 in what CNN reported as a bilateral engagement focused on US–China relations and Iran discussions. The market will resolve affirmatively if Trump uses a specified term (including plural and possessive forms, and compound-word variations) during public events with Xi over those two days. The settlement window closes at midnight UTC on 15 May 2026, leaving minimal time for late-stage clarification of remarks made during the final day of talks.
Historical precedent suggests Trump's bilateral rhetoric with Xi has been variable. During his first term, Trump alternated between confrontational language on trade and measured tones during face-to-face meetings, particularly when cameras were present. His 2017 Mar-a-Lago summit with Xi and subsequent state visits saw him adopt more diplomatic phrasing in formal settings, though unscripted remarks remained less predictable. The current 36% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Trump will deploy the target term—suggesting traders view the outcome as genuinely contingent rather than heavily favoured either direction.
Traders should monitor the official schedule for the bilateral events, which will determine the number and format of public appearances. Joint press conferences and photo opportunities present higher-probability venues for the specified language than closed-door sessions. Any pre-meeting statements or policy announcements from either delegation in the weeks preceding the summit could signal Trump's likely rhetorical posture, though his tendency to deviate from prepared remarks remains a material variable in pricing.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$57K in lifetime turnover and $54K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $21K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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