Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on May 7, 2026 (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/4/brazils-lula-to-travel-to-us-to-meet-with-trump-later-this-week). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring the Brazilian President on May 7, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Sea / Water | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| World Cup | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Pelé | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Six Seven | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Peanut | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Flag | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| My father | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Clown | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is scheduled to visit the United States on 7 May 2026 for bilateral meetings with Donald Trump. This market will resolve affirmatively if Trump uses a specific term (with plural and possessive forms counting) during public events featuring both leaders. The settlement window closes at midnight UTC on that date, meaning resolution depends entirely on remarks made during the scheduled bilateral engagement and any accompanying press conferences or joint statements.
The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current assessment that Trump will not use the specified term during these bilateral events. Historical precedent suggests Trump's bilateral remarks tend toward broad policy statements, trade discussions, and relationship characterisations rather than narrow lexical constraints. The specificity of this market—requiring an exact term rather than thematic content—creates a high bar for affirmative resolution. Comparable markets tracking specific word usage during Trump appearances have typically resolved negatively when the term is uncommon in his typical discourse patterns.
Traders should monitor the official schedule for the bilateral meeting, including confirmation of public events where Trump will speak. Press releases from the White House and Brazilian government offices will clarify the format and scope of public remarks. Any changes to the meeting structure, cancellations, or shifts to private-only discussions would affect the probability of public statements occurring. Current order book positioning at 0% suggests minimal trader conviction that the term will surface during these events.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will Trump say during bilateral events with Brazilian President?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$107K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: