Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on June 5, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <37.5 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 37.5–37.9 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| 38.0–38.4 | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| 38.5–38.9 | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| 39.0–39.4 | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| 39.5+ | 4% YES | 97% NO |
Donald Trump's approval rating as measured by Nate Silver's aggregated polling tracker will determine this market's outcome on 5 June 2026. The resolution hinges on the green trend line displayed on Silver Bulletin's approval ratings page, which synthesises multiple polling sources into a single estimate. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 3% implied probability for a YES resolution, suggesting traders assess a very low likelihood of the specific approval rating threshold being met on that date.
Historical polling aggregates show Trump's approval ratings have typically ranged between 34% and 48% across his political career, with significant volatility tied to major political events and economic conditions. The 3% probability currently priced suggests the market is pricing in either an unusually high or unusually low threshold for approval, or reflects uncertainty about which specific rating level constitutes a YES resolution. Comparable approval tracking for other presidents demonstrates that aggregated ratings tend toward stability over short timeframes, with meaningful shifts requiring substantial shifts in underlying political sentiment or major news events.
Traders should monitor economic data releases, legislative developments, and any significant political announcements between now and June 2026, as these typically drive approval movements. The methodology employed by Silver Bulletin itself remains a dependency—any changes to how the aggregator weights individual polls or adjusts for house effects could affect the final reading. Additionally, the requirement that ratings be "finalised" once the next data point becomes available means the exact timing of subsequent polling releases will determine when the June 5 figure locks in.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Trump approval rating on June 5?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$617 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $617 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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