Trade: Trump-Xi Summit: What will China announce by May 22?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping, the Chinese government, or any authorized representative of the Chinese government announces a reduction, removal, or suspension of any existing tariffs on the United States between market creation and May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only tariff reductions specifically announced in relation to the United States, goods from the United States, or a specific set of countries including the United States will qualify. For example, an announced reduction in global tariffs will not count toward this market's resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $6K
- Total Volume
- $1K
- 24h Volume
- $1K
- Open Interest
- $648
Market outcomes
| Participation in Iran Negotiations | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| Boeing Aircraft Purchase | 80% YES | 21% NO |
| U.S. Soybean Purchase | 64% YES | 37% NO |
| U.S. Oil Purchase | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Rare Earth Export Relief | 32% YES | 69% NO |
Market context
A potential summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping before May 2026 could produce Chinese tariff concessions on American goods. The market settles affirmatively only if China's government formally announces a reduction, removal, or suspension of existing tariffs specifically targeting the United States or American products—broad global tariff cuts would not qualify. The 14% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects scepticism that such an announcement materialises within the settlement window, despite ongoing trade tensions and periodic diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing.
Historical precedent offers mixed signals for interpreting this probability. During Trump's first term (2017–2021), tariff negotiations with China produced the Phase One trade deal in January 2020, which included Chinese commitments to purchase American agricultural and manufactured goods, though formal tariff reductions were limited. Subsequent administrations maintained most Trump-era tariffs whilst pursuing selective negotiations. The current probability discount suggests traders assess a low likelihood of formal Chinese tariff announcements, possibly reflecting Beijing's historical reluctance to announce unilateral concessions and the structural rigidity of trade positions on both sides.
Key catalysts include any official summit announcement, statements from either government's trade representatives, and broader geopolitical developments affecting US–China relations. Recent reporting on trade policy shifts and diplomatic channels will signal shifting expectations. The May 2026 deadline provides roughly 18 months for such an announcement, though the specificity required—tariffs explicitly linked to the United States rather than multilateral reductions—narrows the resolution criteria considerably. Traders should monitor official government communications and statements from authorised representatives closely.
Wikipedia Context
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2018 North Korea–United States Singapore SummitThe 2018 North Korea–United States Singapore Summit, commonly known as the Singapore Summit, was a summit meeting between North Korean Chairman Kim Jong Un and U.S. president Donald Trump, held at the Capella Hotel, Sentosa, Singapore, on June 12, 2018. It was the first-ever meeting between leaders of North Korea and the United States. They signed a joint st
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The Trumpet Summit Meets the Oscar Peterson Big 4The Trumpet Summit Meets the Oscar Peterson Big 4 is a 1980 album featuring the trumpeters Dizzy Gillespie, Clark Terry, and Freddie Hubbard, supported by a quartet led by Oscar Peterson. Outtakes from the 1980 session that produced this album were released as The Alternate Blues.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Trump-Xi Summit: What will China announce by May 22?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for trump xi summit contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Trump-Xi Summit: What will China announce by May 22?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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