Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? | 12% YES | 88% NO |
Ahmed al-Sharaa assumed leadership of Syria in December 2024 following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime, positioning himself as head of a transitional administration. The question of whether he remains in that position through the end of 2026 hinges on Syria's political stability during a critical consolidation period. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 11% probability, reflecting market confidence in al-Sharaa's near-term tenure but acknowledging genuine risks inherent to Syria's fractious post-conflict environment.
Historical precedent suggests caution: Syrian leadership transitions have frequently been violent or abrupt. The 1970 Corrective Movement removed Salah Jadid within months; more recently, the 2011–2015 civil war demonstrated how rapidly political control can fragment. However, al-Sharaa's position differs materially—he commands the HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) militia, which currently dominates Syria's security apparatus, and has secured initial backing from regional powers including Turkey and tacit acceptance from the United States. Comparable cases of post-conflict transitional leaders (Iraq's Mustafa al-Kadhimi, Libya's Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah) show mixed durability, though both survived comparable timeframes.
Key catalysts traders should monitor include the pace of Syrian institutional consolidation, any major security incidents or factional clashes, and external pressure from regional actors—particularly Turkey, Iran, and Israel. Announcements regarding constitutional reform or elections scheduled before end-2026 would signal either institutional deepening or political vulnerability. Recent reporting from Reuters and AFP has tracked tensions between HTS and rival armed groups, making security developments the primary variable affecting al-Sharaa's continuity.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$57K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for trump x al sharaa contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $75 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 12%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: