Trade: America Party candidate on a federal or gubernatorial ballot in 2025?

0% YES 100% NO

Opened 6 July 2025 · Settles 30 December 2026 · 2 comments

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if an America Party candidate appears on an official ballot in a U.S. federal congressional or state gubernatorial election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The candidate may appear on the ballot as “America Party,” “Independent,” or with no party listed, as long as they have formally declared their affiliation with the America Party. Expressions of interest, financial donations, or statements of ideological sympathy will not alone qualify unless accompanied by a clear claim of party affiliation.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: $0
Total Volume: $21K
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $0

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Market outcomes

America Party candidate on a federal or gubernatorial ballot in 2025?

0% YES

100% NO

Market context

The America Party, a political entity associated with Elon Musk, would need to field a candidate on an official U.S. federal or state gubernatorial ballot by 31 December 2025 to resolve this market affirmatively. The candidate must be formally declared as America Party-affiliated, though ballot presentation could vary by state rules. Current Polymarket order book pricing reflects 0% implied probability, suggesting traders assess the timeline and organisational requirements as prohibitively tight for 2025 execution.

Comparable third-party ballot access historically requires months of groundwork. The Libertarian Party, Green Party, and Reform Party each spent years building infrastructure before achieving meaningful ballot presence. Most states impose filing deadlines between March and August for general elections, with some requiring petition signatures numbering in the thousands. The America Party has not yet demonstrated the organisational apparatus or candidate recruitment necessary for federal or gubernatorial races within this compressed timeframe.

Traders should monitor formal party registration filings with state election authorities and any public candidate announcements from America Party leadership. As of late 2024, no gubernatorial or congressional candidates had declared America Party affiliation for 2025 races. The 2026 general election cycle—falling outside this market's settlement window—represents the more plausible timeline for third-party ballot presence. Key dates include state-specific filing deadlines in spring 2025, though these typically target November 2025 local elections rather than federal contests.

Wikipedia Context

Political activities of Elon Musk
Elon Musk has been actively involved in politics, particularly in the United States and Europe, throughout the majority of his business career. Despite historically donating to and voting for both Democrats and Republicans, his political contributions have since shifted almost entirely to right-wing candidates and politicians, outright stating in 2022 that h
America Martin
America Martin is an American painter, sculptor, and self-proclaimed painting anthropologist. Martin's primary subject is the human form. Her style mixes abstract and indigenous motifs and has been compared to mid-century artists. She credits her Colombian roots for her aesthetic and tastes.
American Party of the United States
The American Party of the United States is a conservative political party in the United States. The party adheres to its Permanent Principles, which were established in 1969.
America's Party
America's Party is the blanket branding for official New Year's Eve events held on the Las Vegas Strip, organized by the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority and Las Vegas Events.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "America Party candidate on a federal or gubernatorial ballot in 2025?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 0% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$21K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for trump vs elon contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for 10 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "America Party candidate on a federal or gubernatorial ballot in 2025?"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "America Party candidate on a federal or gubernatorial ballot in 2025?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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