Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| December 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| February 4 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 7% YES | 94% NO |
The market concerns whether the United States and Russia will conclude a formal nuclear arms control agreement between August 2025 and December 2025. Such an agreement would need to be publicly announced and acknowledged by both governments, covering matters such as warhead limits, delivery systems, or verification protocols. The settlement window is notably narrow—a five-month period following Donald Trump's return to office, when his stated openness to direct negotiations with Vladimir Putin could theoretically create diplomatic space for rapid progress on strategic weapons.
Historically, major U.S.–Russia nuclear agreements have required years of negotiation. The original Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT I) took three years; the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) took nine years from initial talks to signature. The most recent agreement, New START, was negotiated over roughly two years and entered force in 2011. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects this baseline scepticism: five months is an extraordinarily compressed timeframe for nuclear diplomacy, which typically demands extensive technical verification discussions, legislative review, and domestic political consensus-building in both capitals.
Traders should monitor Trump administration statements on nuclear negotiations, any direct Trump–Putin communications, and Russian diplomatic signalling. The absence of active arms control talks as of mid-2025 would be a significant headwind. Conversely, any announcement of formal negotiating teams or framework discussions would materially shift market expectations. The geopolitical context—ongoing Ukraine conflict dynamics, NATO posture, and domestic political constraints in both countries—will substantially influence whether either side prioritises nuclear agreements during this window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$591K in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for trump putin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 9 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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