Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? | 16% YES | 85% NO |
Donald Trump's potential endorsement of María Corina Machado as Venezuela's next president represents a narrow but plausible scenario within the broader context of US-Venezuela relations and Trump's foreign policy positioning. Machado, a prominent opposition figure who was barred from running in 2024, remains a significant voice in Venezuelan politics and has cultivated relationships with US political figures. The current 16% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects trader assessment that such an endorsement is unlikely but carries meaningful tail risk, with the market pricing in both Trump's unpredictability and the genuine uncertainty surrounding Venezuela's political trajectory through 2026.
Historical precedent suggests Trump's endorsements in Latin American politics follow patterns of personal relationship and ideological alignment rather than institutional consistency. His previous support for Juan Guaidó as interim president, coupled with his administration's maximum pressure campaign against Nicolás Maduro, established a baseline of anti-Maduro positioning. However, Trump has also demonstrated willingness to shift positions based on diplomatic opportunities or personal calculations, as evidenced by his evolving approach to various authoritarian leaders. These precedents suggest the probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than dismissal.
Key catalysts for movement include any direct Trump statements on Venezuelan succession, developments in US-Venezuela diplomatic channels, and Machado's own political positioning heading into 2026. Recent reporting on Venezuelan opposition dynamics and any Trump campaign statements regarding Latin American policy will likely drive order book activity. The settlement window extends through year-end 2026, providing ample time for political developments to shift the underlying probability substantially in either direction.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$87K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for trump machado contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 16%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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