Trade: Donald Trump tie color on May 11?

Opened 30 April 2026 · Settles 11 May 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on the predominant color of the tie worn by Donald Trump during his first public appearance during which he wears a tie on the specified date (ET). The color will be determined based solely on the first publicly available photo or video of the appearance. Reporting of the tie color without photos or videos will not be considered. Subsequent publication of other photos or videos, including those taken earlier, will not affect the resolution. For the tie to be considered predominantly blue or red, its primary color must be a shade of blue or red, though it may feature other colors as part of a pattern.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: $0
Total Volume: $7K
24h Volume: $6K
Open Interest: $6K

Trade this market on PolyGram →

Market outcomes

Blue	0% YES	100% NO
Red	0% YES	100% NO
Other	100% YES	0% NO

Market context

On 11 May 2026, the market will settle based on the predominant colour of the tie Donald Trump wears during his first public appearance that day where a tie is visible. Resolution depends entirely on the initial photograph or video documentation of that appearance; subsequent images or earlier-dated footage will not alter the outcome. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability for a specific tie colour, suggesting either minimal trading activity or strong consensus against that particular outcome among active participants.

Historical precedent indicates Trump's tie colour choices cluster heavily towards red and blue, with red ties appearing most frequently in public appearances over the past decade. During his presidency and subsequent years, documented instances show red ties dominating his formal wardrobe, whilst blue ties appear considerably less often. This distribution pattern has informed how traders typically price similar daily markets, with red outcomes historically commanding higher probability allocations. The current 0% reading on the order book suggests traders are either avoiding this specific colour entirely or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing.

Catalysts affecting settlement include Trump's scheduled public appearances on the date, which remain subject to announcement through his official channels or news coverage. Any cancellations of planned events, health-related postponements, or unexpected schedule changes would directly impact whether he wears a tie at all. Market participants should monitor his official calendar and mainstream news outlets for confirmation of public events occurring on 11 May 2026, as the absence of any tie-wearing appearance would leave the market unresolved.

Wikipedia Context

Donald Trump
Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021.
Donald Trump Jr.
Donald John Trump Jr., often nicknamed Don Jr., is an American businessman and activist. He is the eldest child of Donald Trump, the 45th and 47th president of the United States, and his first wife, Ivana Trump.
Donald Trump sexual misconduct allegations
As of October 2024, since the 1970s, at least 28 women have publicly accused Donald Trump of various acts of sexual misconduct, including rape, sex with minors, sexual assault, physical abuse, kissing and groping without consent, looking under women's skirts, and walking in on naked pageant contestants.
Donald Trump and fascism
There has been significant academic and political debate about whether Donald Trump, the 45th and 47th president of the United States, can be considered a fascist according to consensus definitions of the term or because of expressed attitudes some critics perceive as sympathetic to the extreme right. Such critiques, first made from 2015, arose especially in

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Donald Trump tie color on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$7K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for trump daily contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $6K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Donald Trump tie color on May 11? "?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

View live odds & trade →

Related prediction markets

Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: