Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Decibel officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Decibel will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Decibel (https://x.com/DecibelTrade), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| March 31, 2027 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| September 30, 2026 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| September 30, 2027 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| June 30, 2027 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| December 31, 2027 | 64% YES | 36% NO |
Decibel, a derivatives trading platform, may issue its own native token before the end of 2027. The market currently reflects a 50% probability of this occurring, with the settlement window closing on 1 January 2028. For a token to qualify, it must be officially launched by Decibel, actively tradable on public markets, and distinct from stablecoins, memecoins, liquid staking tokens, or synthetic assets. Announcements alone will not trigger resolution; only a functioning, publicly available token will satisfy the criteria.
Comparable cases from the derivatives trading sector provide context for interpreting the current odds. Platforms such as dYdX launched their governance token in 2021 after establishing product-market fit, whilst others like Vertex and Hyperliquid issued tokens to decentralised communities without traditional venture backing. The timing of token launches typically correlates with platform maturity, user growth, and competitive pressures within the sector. Decibel's current valuation and funding stage relative to peers suggests the 50% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about both the company's strategic priorities and execution timeline.
Traders should monitor Decibel's official communications on X for announcements regarding tokenomics, governance plans, or fundraising rounds that might signal imminent launch. Recent developments in the derivatives ecosystem, including regulatory clarity around exchange tokens and shifts in venture funding, may influence the company's decision-making. The settlement window extends through the end of 2027, providing ample time for material announcements. Current order book depth on Polymarket will reflect how traders are pricing execution risk, regulatory feasibility, and competitive dynamics within this timeframe.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Decibel launch a token by 2028?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$16K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for token launch contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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