Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Kimberly Birrell and Katie Boulter in the Paris, originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kimberly Birrell' if Kimberly Birrell advances against Katie Boulter. This market will resolve to 'Katie Boulter' if Katie Boulter advances against Kimberly Birrell. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Paris: Kimberly Birrell vs Katie Boulter | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Paris: Kimberly Birrell vs Katie Boulter Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 64% YES | 36% NO |
| Paris: Kimberly Birrell vs Katie Boulter Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 60% YES | 40% NO |
| Paris: Kimberly Birrell vs Katie Boulter Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| Paris: Kimberly Birrell vs Katie Boulter Set 1 Winner | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| Paris: Kimberly Birrell vs Katie Boulter Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| Paris: Kimberly Birrell vs Katie Boulter Match O/U 22.5 | 36% YES | 65% NO |
Kimberly Birrell and Katie Boulter are scheduled to meet in the early rounds of the Paris tournament on 12 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Birrell's advancement at 27%, implying Boulter as the clear favourite at 73%. This probability reflects Boulter's superior ranking and recent form on clay surfaces, where she has demonstrated consistent performance in 2026. The 4:00 AM ET start time is typical for early-round matches at Roland Garros and should not materially affect either player's preparation.
Birrell's career record against top-50 opponents provides context for the current pricing. The Australian has shown capability against higher-ranked players in isolated matches, though her consistency on clay remains below Boulter's established standard. Boulter's trajectory through 2025 and early 2026 has seen her consolidate a top-30 ranking with improved clay-court results, making her the statistical favourite in most comparable matchups at this stage of a Grand Slam.
Traders should monitor official tournament draws and any late withdrawals in the days preceding 12 May. Injury reports or surface conditions at Roland Garros could shift the probability, though neither player has reported significant fitness concerns as of recent tour schedules. The settlement window extends to 19 May, allowing for potential weather delays. Any announcement of Boulter's participation in warm-up events immediately before Paris would serve as a useful indicator of her preparation level.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Paris: Kimberly Birrell vs Katie Boulter" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$584 in lifetime turnover and $35K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $584 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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