Trade: Paris: Sara Bejlek vs Alina Charaeva
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Sara Bejlek and Alina Charaeva in the Paris, originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sara Bejlek' if Sara Bejlek advances against Alina Charaeva. This market will resolve to 'Alina Charaeva' if Alina Charaeva advances against Sara Bejlek. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $25K
- Total Volume
- $5K
- 24h Volume
- $5K
- Open Interest
- $5K
Market outcomes
| Paris: Sara Bejlek vs Alina Charaeva | 68% YES | 33% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Paris: Sara Bejlek vs Alina Charaeva Match O/U 21.5 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Paris: Sara Bejlek vs Alina Charaeva Match O/U 22.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Paris: Sara Bejlek vs Alina Charaeva Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Paris: Sara Bejlek vs Alina Charaeva Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| Paris: Sara Bejlek vs Alina Charaeva Set 1 Winner | 65% YES | 35% NO |
| Paris: Sara Bejlek vs Alina Charaeva Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 65% YES | 35% NO |
Market context
Sara Bejlek and Alina Charaeva are scheduled to meet in a Paris tennis match on 12 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Bejlek's advancement at 69%, reflecting a substantial favouring of the Czech player. Settlement occurs by 19 May 2026, allowing a seven-day window for completion; matches delayed beyond that threshold or cancelled outright resolve to 50-50 parity.
Bejlek, a rising Czech talent, has built momentum on European clay in recent seasons, whilst Charaeva represents Russian tennis interests competing internationally. Historical precedent suggests that clay-court specialists and players with established tour rankings command higher implied probabilities in Paris fixtures. The 69% probability reflects Bejlek's positioning as the favoured competitor, though the 31% assigned to Charaeva indicates meaningful uncertainty—typical for lower-seeded or less-established matchups at Grand Slam level where upsets occur regularly.
Traders should monitor official WTA scheduling confirmations and any injury announcements in the fortnight preceding the match. Recent tournament draws and seeding updates from the French Open organisers will clarify whether either player has withdrawn or faced scheduling conflicts. Surface form on clay, head-to-head records if available, and recent match results from warm-up events in April and early May will provide concrete data points for reassessing the current probability. Any withdrawal by either player before the match begins would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause.
Wikipedia Context
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Paris Saint-Germain FCParis Saint-Germain Football Club, commonly referred to as Paris Saint-Germain, PSG, Paris, or Paris SG, is a French professional football club based in Paris. The club was founded in 1970 following the merger of Paris FC and Stade Saint-Germain, and competes in Ligue 1, the top tier of French football. PSG play their home matches at the Parc des Princes. Wi
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Paris Saint-Germain FC (women)Paris Saint-Germain Football Club, commonly referred to as Paris Saint-Germain, PSG, Paris, or Paris SG, are a French professional women's football club based in Paris, France. It operates as the women's football department of Paris Saint-Germain FC. Founded in 1971, the club competes in the Première Ligue, the top tier of women's football in France, and pla
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Paris Saint-Germain FC in international footballParis Saint-Germain FC are the most successful French club in international competitions. They have won four European titles: the UEFA Cup Winners' Cup in 1996, the UEFA Intertoto Cup in 2001, the UEFA Champions League in 2025, and the UEFA Super Cup in 2025. They also won the FIFA Intercontinental Cup in 2025. PSG are the only French side to have won the Cu
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Paris Saint-Germain FC Youth AcademyThe Paris Saint-Germain FC Youth Academy, commonly referred to as the PSG Youth Academy, is the youth system for the men's and women's football teams of Paris Saint-Germain. Managed by the Association Paris Saint-Germain, the men's section of the academy was founded in 1970, with its first center opening in 1975. PSG began developing young players for the wo
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Paris: Sara Bejlek vs Alina Charaeva" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$5K in lifetime turnover and $25K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Paris: Sara Bejlek vs Alina Charaeva"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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