Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Yexin Ma and Xinxin Yao in the ITF Women Wuning, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yexin Ma' if Yexin Ma advances against Xinxin Yao. This market will resolve to 'Xinxin Yao' if Xinxin Yao advances against Yexin Ma. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Wuning: Yexin Ma vs Xinxin Yao | 59% YES | 42% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Yexin Ma and Xinxin Yao are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's Wuning tournament on 3 June 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional tennis fixture on the International Tennis Federation circuit, where both players compete primarily at ITF level rather than WTA Tour events. The current order book on Polymarket prices Ma's advancement at 59 per cent, reflecting a modest favourite status with meaningful uncertainty around the outcome.
ITF women's matches at this tier typically feature significant variance in form and preparation, with players often juggling multiple tournaments across different surfaces and regions. Historical precedent suggests that ITF fixtures involving players without recent high-profile results tend to trade with wider probability ranges than established WTA matchups, reflecting genuine uncertainty rather than information asymmetry. The 59 per cent probability for Ma reflects a lean towards her as favourite, but the 41 per cent for Yao indicates the market is pricing genuine competitive balance rather than a heavily favoured outcome.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any last-minute withdrawals or scheduling changes in the days preceding 3 June. ITF events occasionally experience fixture delays or cancellations due to weather or administrative issues, which would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause if the match extends beyond 7 days without completion. Recent player injury reports or performance data from preceding ITF tournaments in May 2026 will likely shift the order book, particularly if either player posts notable results or announces fitness concerns closer to the settlement window closing on 11 June.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Wuning: Yexin Ma vs Xinxin Yao" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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