Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Valentina Vargas and Neus Torner Sensano in the ITF Women Ontinyent, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valentina Vargas' if Valentina Vargas advances against Neus Torner Sensano. This market will resolve to 'Neus Torner Sensano' if Neus Torner Sensano advances against Valentina Vargas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Ontinyent: Valentina Vargas vs Neus Torner Sensano | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Valentina Vargas and Neus Torner Sensano are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's tournament at Ontinyent on 3 June 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional fixture on the International Tennis Federation circuit, where both players typically compete for ranking points and prize money. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects minimal trading activity and wide bid-ask spreads characteristic of niche tennis markets with limited liquidity.
ITF Women's matches at this level often feature significant variance in outcomes, particularly when one player holds a substantial ranking advantage or has recent tournament momentum. Historical resolution patterns for comparable ITF fixtures show that upsets occur frequently enough that extreme probabilities—whether near 0% or 100%—often fail to reflect genuine uncertainty. Without current ranking data or recent head-to-head records readily available, the current zero probability likely reflects the absence of early market participants rather than genuine conviction about the outcome.
Traders should monitor player announcements regarding participation, injury status, and any schedule changes as the tournament approaches. The settlement window closes 7 days after the scheduled date, meaning delays beyond 10 June 2026 trigger a 50-50 resolution. ITF tournaments occasionally experience weather disruptions or fixture rescheduling, particularly in June. Confirmation of both players' entry lists and any withdrawal notices closer to the event date will be critical catalysts for reassessing the market's probability distribution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Ontinyent: Valentina Vargas vs Neus Torner Sensano" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$239 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $239 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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