Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Federica Urgesi and Vivian Wolff in the ITF Women Caserta, originally scheduled for June 2, 2026 at 6:06AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Federica Urgesi' if Federica Urgesi advances against Vivian Wolff. This market will resolve to 'Vivian Wolff' if Vivian Wolff advances against Federica Urgesi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Caserta: Federica Urgesi vs Vivian Wolff | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Federica Urgesi and Vivian Wolff are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's circuit event at Caserta on 2 June 2026. The match is set for 6:06 AM ET, a notably early start time typical of ITF tournaments running multiple matches across clay courts in southern Italy. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Urgesi, suggesting traders are pricing in either strong conviction on her form or minimal liquidity depth at the current price.
ITF Women's matches at this level—typically featuring players ranked outside the WTA top 200—carry inherent volatility that rarely justifies extreme probability readings. Historical precedent shows that even favoured players in ITF events face withdrawal risk, surface-specific challenges, and competitive uncertainty. Early-morning scheduling on clay can favour players with established baseline consistency; Urgesi's recent ITF results and ranking trajectory would inform whether this probability reflects genuine form advantage or simply thin order-book conditions.
Traders should monitor the ITF official draw confirmation through late May, as player withdrawals at ITF events occur frequently due to injury, scheduling conflicts, or late entry decisions. Court conditions at Caserta—particularly clay preparation and weather forecasts for early June—may shift match dynamics closer to the date. Any announcement of either player's participation in competing tournaments during the same week, or injury updates from their social media or ITF circuit reporting, could trigger repricing before the settlement window closes on 9 June.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Caserta: Federica Urgesi vs Vivian Wolff" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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