Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Julia Stamatova and Klara Vaja in the ITF Women Kursumlijska Banja, originally scheduled for June 4, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Julia Stamatova' if Julia Stamatova advances against Klara Vaja. This market will resolve to 'Klara Vaja' if Klara Vaja advances against Julia Stamatova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Julia Stamatova vs Klara Vaja | 92% YES | 8% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Julia Stamatova faces Klara Vaja in a Women's ITF tournament match at Kursumlijska Banja, Serbia, originally scheduled for 4 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 92% implied probability for Stamatova's advancement, suggesting the market has priced in a substantial favourite. This probability formation typically reflects relative rankings, recent form data, and head-to-head records where available, though ITF-level matches often feature less comprehensive historical data than WTA events.
ITF Women's tournaments at this tier frequently see favourites advance, particularly when ranking differentials are pronounced. Comparable markets on lower-tier professional tennis have historically shown that 90%+ probabilities resolve correctly roughly 85–90% of the time, accounting for upsets driven by surface preference, injury, or form variance. Vaja would need to overcome both the market's assessment of Stamatova's superiority and the typical execution advantage held by higher-ranked players in such matchups.
Traders should monitor official ITF scheduling confirmations through the WTA's ITF portal, as venue changes or weather delays in the Balkans region could trigger the settlement clause extending beyond the 7-day window. Injury withdrawals or late scratches—common at ITF level—would also alter resolution conditions. The settlement window closes 11 June 2026 at 08:30 UTC, providing a narrow margin for match completion. Any announcement regarding surface conditions at Kursumlijska Banja or player availability shifts would shift the order book's pricing materially from current levels.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Julia Stamatova vs Klara Vaja" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$139 in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $139 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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