Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Sorger and Matthew William Donald in the ITF Men Grado, originally scheduled for May 29, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Sorger' if Sebastian Sorger advances against Matthew William Donald. This market will resolve to 'Matthew William Donald' if Matthew William Donald advances against Sebastian Sorger. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Grado: Sebastian Sorger vs Matthew William Donald | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Sebastian Sorger faces Matthew William Donald in an ITF Men's tournament match scheduled for 29 May 2026 at the Grado event. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Sorger's advancement, indicating the market has priced in an expectation of his victory with no meaningful uncertainty remaining. This extreme probability typically emerges when one player holds a substantial advantage in ranking, recent form, or head-to-head record, though such pricing leaves minimal margin for upset scenarios.
ITF Men's matches at lower-tier events frequently feature significant disparities in player development and experience. Sorger's dominant probability suggests either a considerable ranking gap or established competitive history favouring him. Historical patterns show that when ITF markets reach such extremes, they often reflect accurate assessments of player quality, though occasional withdrawals or unexpected match cancellations do occur within the seven-day settlement window.
Traders should monitor official ITF scheduling confirmations and any player injury announcements through to the settlement deadline on 5 June 2026. The resolution mechanism carries material risk: the match must conclude with a definitive winner within seven days of the scheduled date, otherwise the market resolves 50-50. Surface conditions at Grado, player travel logistics, and late withdrawals represent the primary catalysts that could disrupt the current pricing, though the extreme probability suggests these risks are already heavily discounted by the market.
Note: in this context, IT does not mean Information Technology, but it is an Engineering term.
The ITF Grand Prix Circuit was a professional tennis tour for male players founded in 1970 as the Grand Prix Tennis Circuit it was administered by the International Tennis Federation (ITF) and ran annually until 1989 when it and the rival WCT Circuit were replaced by a single world wide ATP Tour.
The ITF Junior Circuit is the premier level for worldwide competition among under-18 junior tennis players, organized by the International Tennis Federation. Founded in 1977 with only nine tournaments, the 2011 ITF Junior Circuit offered over 350 tournaments in 118 countries. Mirroring the ATP and WTA tours, the ITF Junior Circuit ranks players and crowns a
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Grado: Sebastian Sorger vs Matthew William Donald" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$444 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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