Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Michael Bassem Sobhy and Mohamed Nazim Makhlouf in the ITF Men Monastir, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Michael Bassem Sobhy' if Michael Bassem Sobhy advances against Mohamed Nazim Makhlouf. This market will resolve to 'Mohamed Nazim Makhlouf' if Mohamed Nazim Makhlouf advances against Michael Bassem Sobhy. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Monastir: Michael Bassem Sobhy vs Mohamed Nazim Makhlouf | 78% YES | 23% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Michael Bassem Sobhy, an Egyptian professional tennis player, faces Mohamed Nazim Makhlouf in the ITF Men's Monastir tournament, originally scheduled for 3 June 2026. The match is set for the early morning slot at 4:30 AM ET. Sobhy has competed on the ITF circuit with modest success, whilst Makhlouf represents another lower-ranked competitor on the professional tour. The 78% implied probability currently reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests the market has priced Sobhy as a clear favourite, though both players operate at similar ranking tiers where outcomes carry genuine uncertainty.
ITF Monastir events typically feature players ranked outside the top 200, where surface preference and recent form carry outsized importance. Historical patterns at this level show that favourites at 75%+ probability win roughly 70–75% of the time, meaning the current odds leave modest value for contrarian positions. Sobhy's recent tournament appearances and head-to-head record against comparable opponents would be the primary historical reference points; however, limited public match data between these specific players constrains confidence in the pricing.
Traders should monitor tournament scheduling updates through the ITF website and official Monastir tournament communications, particularly given the early morning slot which occasionally faces delays or rescheduling. Any withdrawal announcements or injury disclosures in the five days preceding 3 June would materially shift the probability. The settlement window extends to 10 June, allowing a seven-day grace period for delayed matches, which is relevant given the vulnerability of early-morning fixtures to weather or logistical disruption.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Monastir: Michael Bassem Sobhy vs Mohamed Nazim Makhlouf" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$77 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $77 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: