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Tennis

Trade: ITF Grado: Manuel Plunger vs Matthew William Donald

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Manuel Plunger and Matthew William Donald in the ITF Men Grado, originally scheduled for May 28, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Manuel Plunger' if Manuel Plunger advances against Matthew William Donald. This market will resolve to 'Matthew William Donald' if Matthew William Donald advances against Manuel Plunger. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
Total Volume
$833
24h Volume
Open Interest
$716
Trade this market on PolyGram →

Market outcomes

ITF Grado: Manuel Plunger vs Matthew William Donald 0% YES100% NO
Completed Match 100% YES0% NO

Market context

Manuel Plunger and Matthew William Donald are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's Grado tournament on 28 May 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional tennis fixture within the International Tennis Federation circuit, where both players compete for ranking points and prize money. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either a complete absence of trading activity or a technical issue with market initialisation, as even heavily favoured outcomes typically show minimal liquidity rather than absolute certainty.

ITF Grado events attract players ranked outside the ATP top 500, making match outcomes inherently less predictable than major tour fixtures. Historical data from comparable ITF tournaments shows that upsets occur at higher frequency than on the ATP circuit, and player form can shift substantially week to week given the lower consistency of competition. Without established head-to-head records between these specific competitors, traders should examine recent tournament results, surface preference (clay at Grado), and current ranking trajectories for both players to establish a rational baseline probability.

Key catalysts include official confirmation of both players' participation closer to the event date, any injury announcements, and weather conditions affecting the clay court schedule. The settlement window extends to 4 June 2026, providing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date. Traders should monitor ITF official draws and player social media for withdrawal notices, as lower-ranked professionals frequently alter schedules based on competing opportunities or fitness concerns. Current market illiquidity suggests significant price discovery remains possible once trading activity begins.

Wikipedia Context

  • IT Grade

    Note: in this context, IT does not mean Information Technology, but it is an Engineering term.

  • Grand Prix tennis circuit

    The ITF Grand Prix Circuit was a professional tennis tour for male players founded in 1970 as the Grand Prix Tennis Circuit it was administered by the International Tennis Federation (ITF) and ran annually until 1989 when it and the rival WCT Circuit were replaced by a single world wide ATP Tour.

  • ITF junior circuit

    The ITF Junior Circuit is the premier level for worldwide competition among under-18 junior tennis players, organized by the International Tennis Federation. Founded in 1977 with only nine tournaments, the 2011 ITF Junior Circuit offered over 350 tournaments in 118 countries. Mirroring the ATP and WTA tours, the ITF Junior Circuit ranks players and crowns a

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "ITF Grado: Manuel Plunger vs Matthew William Donald" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$833 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "ITF Grado: Manuel Plunger vs Matthew William Donald"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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