Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Radu Mihai Papoe and Stefan Ilie Bogdan Petre in the ITF Men Bistrita, originally scheduled for June 5, 2026 at 6:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Radu Mihai Papoe' if Radu Mihai Papoe advances against Stefan Ilie Bogdan Petre. This market will resolve to 'Stefan Ilie Bogdan Petre' if Stefan Ilie Bogdan Petre advances against Radu Mihai Papoe. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Bistrita: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Ilie Bogdan Petre | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Radu Mihai Papoe faces Stefan Ilie Bogdan Petre in a Men's ITF Bistrita tournament match originally scheduled for 5 June 2026 at 6:15 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability for Papoe's advancement, suggesting the market views him as a substantial favourite. This probability has formed through cumulative trading activity and reflects the collective assessment of available information regarding both players' recent form, head-to-head records, and surface conditions at the Bistrita venue.
ITF Men's circuit matches at this tier typically involve players ranked outside the ATP top 500, where form variance and surface specialisation create meaningful prediction challenges. Romanian domestic ITF events often see home-nation players receive modest probability adjustments; however, the 91% threshold suggests Papoe holds either a clear ranking advantage, recent winning streak, or documented superiority on clay courts. Comparable ITF matches with similar probability distributions have historically resolved according to seeding roughly 85–88% of the time, indicating the current odds contain modest but measurable uncertainty.
Traders should monitor official ITF tournament draws and player withdrawal announcements through to the settlement window closing on 12 June 2026 at 10:15 AM UTC. Weather disruptions affecting the Bistrita region could trigger the seven-day delay clause, which would force 50-50 resolution. Confirmation of both players' participation and any late ranking updates from the ATP or ITF databases represent the primary catalysts that could shift the order book materially before match commencement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Bistrita: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Ilie Bogdan Petre" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$106 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $106 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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