Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Astrid Olsen and Margaux Maquet in the ITF Women Oliva, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Astrid Olsen' if Astrid Olsen advances against Margaux Maquet. This market will resolve to 'Margaux Maquet' if Margaux Maquet advances against Astrid Olsen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Oliva: Astrid Olsen vs Margaux Maquet | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Astrid Olsen and Margaux Maquet are scheduled to meet in the ITF Women's circuit event in Oliva on 27 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects zero probability for an Olsen victory, suggesting either strong conviction in Maquet's superiority or minimal liquidity at present price levels. Settlement occurs by 3 June 2026, allowing a narrow window for match completion and resolution.
The 0% implied probability warrants scrutiny given both players operate within the lower-tier professional circuit where form volatility and ranking gaps often compress match outcomes. ITF events frequently feature players ranked outside the WTA top 200, where head-to-head records carry limited predictive weight. Historical ITF matchups between similarly-ranked opponents typically show 40–60 probability splits rather than extreme outcomes, suggesting the current pricing may reflect incomplete order book depth rather than definitive assessment of player quality.
Traders should monitor official ITF scheduling confirmations and any late withdrawals in the fortnight preceding the match. Weather disruptions at Spanish clay venues occasionally force rescheduling beyond the seven-day tolerance threshold, triggering 50-50 resolution. Recent ITF tournament reports indicate fixture adherence has remained stable through spring 2026. Maquet's recent match results and Olsen's current form on clay surfaces represent the primary catalysts; any injury announcements or ranking shifts in the days before play would likely shift the order book significantly from its current extreme position.
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This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Oliva: Astrid Olsen vs Margaux Maquet" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$76 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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